The market enters 2026 with a series of notable developments: Google has tightened advertising requirements for prediction markets in the US; the prop futures platform FundingTicks has been criticized for changing its minimum 1-minute holding rule and applying it retroactively; Prop Firm Match released estimated data showing prop firms paid out nearly $325 million in 2025. Meanwhile, Kraken and Deutsche Börse have formed an alliance that could strengthen the TradFi-crypto bridge across trading, custody, and settlement.
Regulatory & broker update: Google tightens prediction market advertising, IG boosts idle cash incentives
2026 opens with a notable move from Google: the platform will only allow prediction market advertising in the US for companies under federal oversight, clearly distinguishing between CFTC-regulated event contracts and binary options, which remain banned.
In the brokerage space, many firms continue to optimize their policies to retain clients:
- IG is expected to raise interest rates on uninvested cash for new clients and remove the quarterly inactivity fee.
- Doo Group is rebranding its entities in the UK and South Africa to RKX while aligning its legal filings with the FCA.
- Exante’s UK entity (LHCM) has temporarily stopped onboarding new clients and accepting deposits under an agreement with the FCA.
- Saxo Hong Kong was fined HKD 4 million for offering crypto products to retail investors despite being restricted to professional clients only.
Overall, this signals that 2026 is trending toward “tighter conditions and greater transparency,” especially for crypto-related products and emerging market structures.
Prop firm spotlight: FundingTicks faces backlash over rule changes; Prop Firm Match estimates $325 million in payouts
The main debate in the prop trading space has centered on FundingTicks, a prop futures platform, after the community pushed back against a new rule:
- A minimum 1-minute trade holding time
- Reportedly applied retroactively to existing accounts
Many traders argue that this change disrupts scalping strategies, creates confusion, and leads to losses. In response to the backlash, CEO Khaled posted a statement, emphasizing that the company has paid out over $220 million and reaffirming that it always prioritizes traders’ interests.
On the data side, Prop Firm Match released an estimate that total prop firm payouts in 2025 reached nearly $325 million, based on its payout-tracking tool (self-reported data). According to the report:
- FundedNext led with around $108 million
- FundingPips recorded about $97 million
- FundedNext Futures reached roughly $46 million
However, this has also sparked debate because the data is self-reported, and the market still lacks standardized transparency around payout reporting.
Crypto & macro trend: Kraken partners with Deutsche Börse, paving the way for a TradFi–crypto bridge
In the crypto space, the Kraken–Deutsche Börse alliance is seen as a potential major catalyst, as the partnership is expected to expand across multiple areas:
- Trading
- Custody
- Settlement
- Collateral management
- Tokenized assets
The agreement aims to reduce costs, latency, and barriers in converting between fiat and crypto, which has been a key obstacle preventing many institutional clients from transitioning.
If implemented effectively, this could become a “model framework” for similar alliances in the future, helping drive institutional capital into the digital asset ecosystem.
